New PolicyMap and Moody’s Analytics Report Reveals Neighborhood Level U.S. Housing Shortage Analysis 

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PolicyMap, a leading geospatial data platform, in partnership with Moody’s Analytics, Reinvestment Fund, and Urban Institute, has released the first national analysis of America’s housing shortage at the neighborhood level, using census tract data from nearly 350 U.S. cities with populations over 100,000. The study, Bringing the Housing Shortage Into Sharper Focus, surpasses broad national and metro-level estimates to analyze the supply of and demand for housing at the local level. 

Specifically, the report identifies a shortfall of about two million homes, and more importantly, it reveals how that shortage varies across neighborhoods. By examining thousands of census tracts, the research shows where supply gaps of homes for owners and renters are most severe and how those local shortages relate to neighborhood income. 

“It’s so important to be able to understand this data with this level of granularity,” said Maggie McCullough, CEO and founder of PolicyMap. “We can now see not just how many homes are missing, but where they’re needed, whether they should be rental or owner-occupied, and which income groups are most affected. By partnering with Moody’s Analytics, we combined their estimation model with our granular spatial data to give policymakers a more actionable roadmap.” 

A Ground-Level Look at Housing Supply
Unlike earlier efforts that offered broad national estimates ranging from 1.5 to over 7 million homes, this study uses a neighborhood-level approach. It compares local vacancy rates to an “equilibrium” baseline from 2012 to 2018, a period chosen for its relative market stability after the recession and before the disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic. By analyzing how current vacancy rates differ from those norms, the study estimates where each neighborhood is under- or oversupplied in both rental and owner-occupied housing. 

Key takeaways from the report include: 

• The deepest shortfalls are in moderate to middle-income rental markets, revealing a widespread gap in what the report terms “workforce rental” housing 

• High-income neighborhoods, particularly in large cities, often have a surplus of rental units, creating an imbalance in available supply and actual need 

• The ownership market is more balanced overall, although some high-income areas are still tight, while some lower-income neighborhoods show small surpluses 

• The national shortage of homes is driven more by a lack of rental housing than homes for sale 

• Many cities that appear balanced at the metro level contain sharp neighborhood-level imbalances that are often hidden in aggregated data 

“This analysis shows that housing supply is not a one-size-fits-all issue,” said Cristian deRitis, deputy chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “You can’t solve affordability by adding units in the wrong places. Looking at the census tract level reveals how local mismatches between supply and demand are distorting the broader housing market. Partnering with PolicyMap and Reinvestment Fund allowed us to build a repeatable, data-informed framework that policymakers can use to target solutions more effectively.”