Where do we grow from here? Charlotte, Raleigh expected to have nation’s fastest growth in coming years

Charlotte and Raleigh are poised to grow faster than any other large urban areas in the country over the next fifteen years. In fact, Charlotte’s population is projected to grow by 71 percent from 2010 to 2030, according to a new United Nations study of world population growth.

The findings are not surprising to demographer Rebecca Tippett, director of Carolina Demography at the Carolina Population Center at the UNC Chapel Hill, because it’s a trend that has been 20 years in the making.

Not all population experts see it that way, though.

“I’m still surprised with Charlotte and Raleigh moving out of the pack,” said John Chesser, the population analyst at UNC Charlotte’s Urban Institute. Chesser examined the population study which looked at the continuous build-out of regions around the globe, expecting to find a population boom clustered in Southeastern cities traditionally associated with big growth like Richmond, Va., and Nashville, Tenn., in the 1990s and 2000s.

Of Charlotte, he said: “We’ve seen a continuous build-out of the city center even through the recession. The city is differentiating itself as an urban spot.”

Domestic migration

Corroboration for the study can be found in U.S. Census Bureau studies that also show population growth in North Carolina, the third fastest-growing state, is concentrated in and around Raleigh and Charlotte.

The Census’ 2010 to 2013 population estimate has the Charlotte metro in the top 10 nationally in growth numbers, as well as growth from domestic migration, while Raleigh was second in percentage growth from domestic migration.

“People are also moving from rural areas to more dynamic urbanized centers,” said Chesser.

Factors contributing to the growth are inbound migration from a diverse population that includes retirees to young educated people attracted by jobs, said Tippett, and a fairly new phenomenon of non-native Americans from Latin America and Asia moving to the area.

“There are many Hispanics working in construction and agriculture that have come to the Carolinas, as well as Indians and Chinese working in science, technology and research,” said Tippett.

The non-immigrant population is drawn to the area by its relative affordability compared to other regions of the country and its weather, she added.

Charlotte and Raleigh will continue to expand because of their natural boundaries, too. Unlike metros such as New York that are built up and constrained by physical barriers such as water, the cities have the land to provide for expansion. Tippett foresees an urbanized corridor between the two cities, but with a density that is different than that seen in the Northeast corridor between Boston and New York.

The growth will come with challenges, she predicts. Historically, services have been provided to residents by municipalities, but with inbound growth and more people crossing municipal boundaries – whether for work, school or recreation – towns will have to provide better coordination in order to meet the needs of the population, said Tippett.

‘Southern megalopolis’

Another recent study published in July by researchers at the U.S. Geological Survey and North Carolina State University paints a more formidable picture. As regional growth continues its rapid pace and Southeast cities continue to develop in an urban-sprawl, low-density model that is car-centric, the paper predicts the creation of a “Southern megalopolis” stretching from Raleigh to Atlanta.

“While recent ‘Smart-Growth’ initiatives that promote more intensive development and a return to a strong urban core are gaining popularity, this (business as usual) scenario is still reflective of the primary development model. And without significant changes to the status quo, this type of growth will continue,” researchers warned.

Growth in already urbanized space in Charlotte, a trend that is also taking shape nationally, will lead to a more complex set of development patterns, Chesser believes. The development community is recognizing that there is no “one size fits all” policy that will provide for anticipated growth. Millenials and boomers, for different reasons, are choosing to live closer in to center city, in walkable, mixed-use communities with transportation options and services close at hand, he said. These diverse demographic groups will create the market force that will shape how the region develops, thus eliminating the concern of urban sprawl, according to Chesser. “It’s a really good way to avoid an Atlanta build-out.”

“These are choices that create a more dense approach that can be positive for cities fiscally,” Chesser said. In the city core, that means building on existing infrastructure and frameworks, which will save money.

“I think we are well prepared as a metro to handle the growth,” said Wayne Herron, planning director for Cornelius. As a veteran in land use with nearly twenty years’ experience in planning in Cornelius, Monroe and Boone, he still finds the anticipated growth “astounding” and requiring planning coordination.

Where the region has done a good job in planning, Herron believes, is in regional transportation through the Charlotte Regional Transportation Planning Organization working on a unified transportation system for the city and surrounding towns. Herron said through the organization, municipalities have been able to come together and share ideas.  It could serve as a model for larger scale development, he thinks.

“Connect our Future is an outstanding planning effort that gets local governments working together,” said Herron. “It’s a great tool for regional development.” The project is a three-year process that is engaging public, private and nonprofit organizations and communities across the 14-county region in an effort to identify existing challenges, future plans and needs and strategies to address growth.

Strained infrastructure

Huge population growth will pose a challenge for infrastructure, parks, sewer and water.

“We can’t keep up with roads now,” Herron said. “With explosive growth, it’ll be hard to keep up despite best efforts. We’re very reactive when it comes to transportation and parks.”

Davidson Commissioner Brian Jenest agrees. “There’s not enough money for roads and transit as it is,” said Jenest, managing partner at Charlotte land use consultancy Cole, Jenest and Stone. “We have $10 billion for a $60 billion need.”

Jenest thinks that a huge population influx will create a much denser city, “building up rather than out,” and creative policy solutions like new ordinances and zoning that support the growth as well as extending transit projects, including the proposed LYNX red and silver light rail lines, which would run north to Mooresville  and southeast to  the Union County border, respectively.

It will also take politicians having the political will to make hard choices, Jenest thinks.

“Politicians will have to make unpopular decisions like the Interstate 77 expansion,”Jenest said of the controversial toll road project.  Residents in Davidson and SouthPark may not much like having additional density in their neighborhoods, but these are realities that they’ll have to accept, he believes.

Despite the congestion and other challenges brought upon by added population, living in a vibrant city with tremendous appeal is not the worst problem to have, said Jenest.

“New people bring new ideas.”