New Study: America’s Newest Homeowners Are Running Out of Financial Breathing Room 

America’s housing affordability crisis may be entering a new phase. 

Truework, a Checkr company, has released its 2026 Recent Homebuyers Report, Homeownership on the Edge. The report found that 85% of recent homebuyers with a mortgage say refinancing within the next three years is important to their financial health, up from 56% in a similar 2025 survey. Half (50%) say the stakes are even higher: their monthly mortgage payment won’t be sustainable unless they can refinance to a lower rate. 

The Truework survey of 1,000 Americans who purchased a home in the past 24 months also found that many recent buyers entered today’s housing market believing current mortgage rates would be temporary. Six in 10 (60%) expected rates to fall after purchasing their home, and nearly three-quarters (73%) planned from the outset to refinance once rates declined. For many households, refinancing wasn’t simply a financial opportunity, it was part of the original plan for making homeownership affordable. 

“For decades, the conversation around affordability has focused on whether buyers could qualify for a mortgage,” said Randy Lightbody, Head of Mortgage at Truework. “However, our research shows that many buyers are qualifying based on one payment while planning their financial future around another, even gambling on a rate cut that might never come. Affordability is no longer just about getting into a home. It’s about staying there, and many of today’s buyers are making life-changing decisions based on a bet that may not pay off.” 

Mortgage Costs Are Already Changing Everyday Life
The financial strain isn’t simply changing household budgets, it’s influencing everyday decisions and long-term plans. 

• 32% have cut spending on basic necessities. 

• 20% have reduced retirement savings contributions. 

• 13% have considered delaying having children because of their mortgage. 

One Unexpected Expense Could Put Homeownership at Risk
Many recent buyers are living on a financial tightrope, with little room to absorb an unexpected financial setback. 

• 88% say at least one common financial setback could jeopardize their mortgage payment. 

• 67% say losing a job or income would put their mortgage at serious risk. 

• 44% say an unexpected medical expense could make it difficult to keep up with their mortgage payments. 

If the Rate Cut Doesn’t Come, the Trade-offs Get Bigger
If refinancing isn’t possible within the next three years, many buyers expect they’ll need to make even greater financial tradeoffs, moving beyond minor belt-tightening measures: 

• 40% expect to take on a second job or additional work. 

• 22% expect to rely on credit cards to cover everyday expenses. 

• 21% expect to withdraw money from retirement savings just to stay afloat. 

Millennials Face the Greatest Financial Risk If Rates Stay High
Compared with Gen X buyers, Millennials were more likely to purchase their homes expecting mortgage rates to fall, and are now facing the greatest financial pressure if those expectations don’t materialize. 

• 79% planned to refinance when they purchased their home, compared with 64% of Gen X buyers. 

• 53% say their mortgage won’t be sustainable without refinancing, compared with 43% of Gen X buyers. 

• 45% expect to take on a second job or side hustle if refinancing isn’t possible, compared with 35% of Gen X buyers. 

“The true cost of homeownership extends far beyond the purchase price or the monthly mortgage payment. It’s showing up in the everyday decisions families are making, whether that’s putting off having children, delaying retirement, taking on additional work, or simply cutting back on basic necessities,” said Lightbody. “That’s a different way of thinking about affordability, and one that’s becoming increasingly important in today’s housing market.”